Time is the most important factor in our investment decision making. We analyse the land cycle, driven by the US, which exhibits a recurring 18-20 year pattern of boom & bust. We then break the cycle up and look for repeating market behaviours that echo past cycles. A present example is the Tech Bubble of 99/00 mirroring the Cryptocurrency Bubble of present time. On the bust side, the early 1990s US Savings and Loan Crisis mirrors the GFC of 07/08.
Whilst it is controversial to hold the view that markets can be forecast, we are firm in our conviction that through examining human and market behaviours, recurring patterns exist, not dissimilar to repeating patterns that occur in nature. With a healthy dose of humility (you always must trade the market, not the forecast), one can confidently make investment decisions with an eye to where we are positioned in the land cycle.